Tuesday, March 6, 2018

This is a make or break NFL free agency and draft for Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jason Licht


Jason Licht's on the bubble.

The Buccaneers' general manager has been inconsistent with both his free agent signings and draft picks.

While his early-round picks have panned out pretty well, his late-round picks are atrocious, and the bulk of NFL franchises are comprised of 5th- through 7th-round picks.

The free agency period is about to begin and the draft pundits are doling out mock drafts every 30 seconds. Licht's job, and possibly career, is at stake.

Here are a list of his draft picks since 2014:

2014:

Mike Evans, WR, 1st round - Nothing bad can be said about Evans. Four straight 1,000 yard seasons. One Pro Bowl. Great pick.

Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, TE, 2nd round - Never amounted to anything in Tampa. Was labeled as a lazy, entitled player. Bad pick.

Charles Sims, RB, 3rd round - Utility back that can't carry the load. Solid pass catcher. Struggled between the tackles. Good pick.

Kadeem Edwards, OL, 5th round - Has yet to play a meaningful snap in the NFL. Is no longer in Tampa. Bad pick.

Kevin Pamphile, OL, 5th round - Has started 33 games in Tampa and has played well in key situations. Good pick.

Robert Herron, WR, 6h round - Never played a meaningful down in Tampa. Is no longer in the NFL. Bad pick.

2015:

James Winston, QB, 1st overall selection - First player in NFL history to eclipse 4,000 passing yards in each of his first two seasons. Inconsistencies and turnovers have plagued his young career. Good pick.

Donovan Smith, OL, 2nd round - Has started 47 games at left tackle, but has struggled recently with speedy edge rushers. Good pick.

Ali Marpet, OL, 2nd round - Has started 40 games at guard and center. Scouts questioned his abilities considering he came from a small college, but has proved doubters wrong. Great pick.

Kwon Alexander, LB, 4th round - Surprised since day one and hasn't disappointed. Earned first Pro Bowl in 2017. Great pick.

Kenny Bell, WR, 5th round - Has yet to catch a meaningful ball in the NFL. Is no longer in Tampa. Bad pick.

Kaelin Clay, WR, 6th round - Has six receptions in three NFL seasons. Is no longer in Tampa. Bad pick.

Joey Iosefa, RB, 7th round - Played in two NFL games. Is no longer in the NFL. Bad pick.

2016: 

Vernon Hargreaves, CB, 1st round - Has one interception and 15 passes defensed in 25 starts. Finished 2017 on the IR. Never built on his average rookie campaign. Bad pick.

Noah Spence, DE, 2nd round - Has started six games with 6.5 sacks, but his sophomore year was marred with injuries. Bad pick.

Roberto Aguayo, K, 2nd round - This is Licht's most egregious draft choice; trading back into the 2nd round, giving up a 3rd and 4th rounder, for the FSU kicker. Is no longer in Tampa, and was, until recently, jobless. Bad pick.

Ryan Smith, CB, 4th round - Played special teams and earned ten starts in 2017 due to injuries in the secondary. Has five passes defensed. Bad pick.

Caleb Benenoch, OL, 5th round - Has started six games at tackle and guard the past two seasons. Solid reserve player. Good pick.

Devante Bond, LB, 6th round - Has played mostly on special teams. Earned two starts in 2017 due to injuries. Solid reserve player. Good pick.

Dan Vitale, RB, 7th round - Never played a meaningful down in Tampa. Is no longer in Tampa. Bad pick.

2017:

OJ Howard, TE, 1st round - Was having a strong rookie campaign before missing the last few games due to injury. Fundamental run blocker and has the speed to create mismatches. Great pick.

Justin Evans, S, 2nd round - Started slow, but came on strong towards the end of the season - earning nine starts with three INTs. Good pick.

Chris Godwin, WR, 3rd round - Started two games and earned over 500 receiving yards as a spot player. Great pick.

Kendall Beckwith, LB, 3rd round - Started eleven games at all three linebacker positions. Tremendous athlete. Great pick.

Jeremy McNichols, RB, 5th round - Has yet to play a meaningful NFL down. Is no longer in Tampa. Bad pick.

Stevie Tu'ikolovatu, DT, 7th round - Has yet to play a meaningful NFL down. Bad pick.

Half of Licht's picks are bad picks, and I'm basing this off of productivity. Seeing the field, getting on the field, and making impactful plays equals productivity.

Eight of those picks are no longer in Tampa, and two of those are no longer in the NFL.

Winston is on the bubble and can quickly turn into a bad pick making Licht's resume even worse.

His free agent signings are pathetic:

2014:

Cornerback Alterraun Verner never played well in Tampa and was released in 2016. Left tackle Anthony Collins played one season and is no longer in the NFL. Defensive end Michael Johnson was a complete bust after one season. And defensive tackle Clinton McDonald was the only free-agent signing that panned out.

2015:

Linebacker Bruce Carter played one season and was beat out by a rookie in Kwon Alexander. Henry Melton played poorly for one season and is no longer in the NFL. Safety Chris Conte has been serviceable, yet inconsistent. Cornerback Sterling Moore played well in one season.

2016:

Guard JR Sweezy missed all of 2016 with a back injury and played in 14 games last season. Cornerback Brent Grimes has been an excellent addition to the secondary, but he's 34. Defensive end Robert Ayers never lived up to his lofty expectations, amounting two sacks last season.

2017:

Wide receiver DeSean Jackson didn't have the same impact as he did in Philadelphia, but that may be because Jackson and Winston never got on the same page. Defensive tackle Chris Baker played one season and was a disappointment.

That's six players that stayed in Tampa for one season. Technically, it may be seven if JR Sweezy is released considering he only played one season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneer fans, look above. That is why this team hasn't developed in the last five years. Bad free agent signings and only half of the draft picks having any kind of significant effect.

Sad truth, this team isn't talented. The coaching staff isn't working with impressive players.

Licht's bubble will burst unless he and his staff revamp how they evaluate talent. If not, expect a complete overhaul after the 2018 season.

Monday, March 5, 2018

For the bridge-diving Tampa Bay Lightning fans: by the numbers


Tampa Bay Lightning fans are worried the charmed  ride will end sooner rather than later and unjustifiably so.

Maybe it's because the Buccaneers haven't been to the playoffs since 2007 or maybe it's because the Rays have been making some questionable decisions lately, but the fans in Tampa are anxious.

Why?

The Bolts are 7-2-1 the last ten games and 4-0-1 in its last five with a plus-3 point differential. All five went into overtime or shootout with three of those victories against current playoff teams (Toronto, Dallas, and Philadelphia). 

Buffalo got the best of Tampa recently in a 2-1 OT disappointment, but rebounded against the hottest team in Philadelphia last Saturday in a 7-6 OT rally.

No matter the circumstances, this team has a special sort of resolve and never-surrender attitude. Something playoff mentality teams do.

Is the Buffalo game what's upsetting everyone? Is it the amount of goals allowed or games taken into overtime that has everyone fidgeting?

Let's take a look at a few numbers:

(Florida is currently on the outside looking in the playoff picture, but let's add them anyway since the Panthers are one-point out) 

The Lightning are 13-8 against all current Eastern playoff teams with a plus-21 point differential. New Jersey is 2-0 against Tampa with a plus-2 on them (both games were one-point victories). Boston is 1-0, but the top-two teams in the Atlantic will meet three more times. The lone victory came in Boston on a back-to-back, 3-2.

The rest? 

Washington - 2-1, plus-1
Pittsburgh - 2-1, plus-4
Columbus - 3-0, plus-8
Philadelphia - 2-1, plus-5
Toronto - 2-1, plus-2
Florida - 2-1, plus-4

No one's talking about gaining an integral part of the team when arguably the Lightning's best two-way player, Ondrej Palat, returns soon, as well as gaining Ryan McDonagh, who'll make his debut another game since he was seen practicing with a red, non-contact jersey during the morning skate.

This, and the next 11 out of 16 games are at Amalie where the Lightning have won 76% of the time.

If Bolts fans truly want to worry, out of the next 16, 11 are against teams with a .500 or better record. The good news is the Lightning play up to its level of competition.

Yes, the defense is a concern. Expect to see less Andrej Sustr and more Slater Koekkoek in the coming weeks. 

Barring a severe injury, this team is primed for a Stanley Cup run. The doom-and-gloom attitudes make little sense when the Lightning currently have 94 points and sit atop all standings - not just the Eastern. 

Reinforcements are coming. The team doesn't quit.

Enjoy the ride, Tampa.