Monday, March 5, 2018

For the bridge-diving Tampa Bay Lightning fans: by the numbers


Tampa Bay Lightning fans are worried the charmed  ride will end sooner rather than later and unjustifiably so.

Maybe it's because the Buccaneers haven't been to the playoffs since 2007 or maybe it's because the Rays have been making some questionable decisions lately, but the fans in Tampa are anxious.

Why?

The Bolts are 7-2-1 the last ten games and 4-0-1 in its last five with a plus-3 point differential. All five went into overtime or shootout with three of those victories against current playoff teams (Toronto, Dallas, and Philadelphia). 

Buffalo got the best of Tampa recently in a 2-1 OT disappointment, but rebounded against the hottest team in Philadelphia last Saturday in a 7-6 OT rally.

No matter the circumstances, this team has a special sort of resolve and never-surrender attitude. Something playoff mentality teams do.

Is the Buffalo game what's upsetting everyone? Is it the amount of goals allowed or games taken into overtime that has everyone fidgeting?

Let's take a look at a few numbers:

(Florida is currently on the outside looking in the playoff picture, but let's add them anyway since the Panthers are one-point out) 

The Lightning are 13-8 against all current Eastern playoff teams with a plus-21 point differential. New Jersey is 2-0 against Tampa with a plus-2 on them (both games were one-point victories). Boston is 1-0, but the top-two teams in the Atlantic will meet three more times. The lone victory came in Boston on a back-to-back, 3-2.

The rest? 

Washington - 2-1, plus-1
Pittsburgh - 2-1, plus-4
Columbus - 3-0, plus-8
Philadelphia - 2-1, plus-5
Toronto - 2-1, plus-2
Florida - 2-1, plus-4

No one's talking about gaining an integral part of the team when arguably the Lightning's best two-way player, Ondrej Palat, returns soon, as well as gaining Ryan McDonagh, who'll make his debut another game since he was seen practicing with a red, non-contact jersey during the morning skate.

This, and the next 11 out of 16 games are at Amalie where the Lightning have won 76% of the time.

If Bolts fans truly want to worry, out of the next 16, 11 are against teams with a .500 or better record. The good news is the Lightning play up to its level of competition.

Yes, the defense is a concern. Expect to see less Andrej Sustr and more Slater Koekkoek in the coming weeks. 

Barring a severe injury, this team is primed for a Stanley Cup run. The doom-and-gloom attitudes make little sense when the Lightning currently have 94 points and sit atop all standings - not just the Eastern. 

Reinforcements are coming. The team doesn't quit.

Enjoy the ride, Tampa.

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